Prediction: 2009 will be a tough year for most integrators

As the global financial crisis is still unfolding, budgets are being cut and we’ve now reached a stage where web projects are routinely either postponed or cancelled. Many of our members and customers are going into 2009 with zero budget and old broken web systems. As a previous US speaker from one of our past conferences wrote in a private e-mail earlier today:

As a part of this “slash and burn” agenda, the powers that be have laid off the entire intranet team as of December 31

This inevitably also means that system integrators have a tough year ahead in 2009 as consultants will not be used to fill the gab. Many integrators will be forced to reduce staff. Some will go bankrupt. Some will become acquired. I expect that it will be nasty and many enterprises will be affected. As I mentioned previously there will be no consolidation among CMS vendors, but in a difficult market you can definitely expect consolidation among system integrators.

The good news for buyers is that you will have a much better negotiation position and hourly / daily rates will be on a downward trend. The bad news is that many things are beyond your control as evidenced by the recent Satyam crisis. Changing system integrators is a very costly exercise and unfortunately most organisations that I’ve talked to are completely unprepared for this.

As I wrote back in 2005, identifying the right implementation partner is not easy, but in 2009, whom you work with will be much critical to the outcome of your projects, than what tool you use.

What’s your view? Have you already been burnt? Any tips on how to reduce risk?